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Takai, Shizuka; Shimada, Taro; Takeda, Seiji; Koike, Katsuaki*
Mathematical Geosciences, 56(2), p.333 - 360, 2024/02
Times Cited Count：0 Percentile：0.01(Geosciences, Multidisciplinary)To enable proper remediation of accidental groundwater contamination, the contaminant plume evolution needs to be accurately estimated. In the estimation, uncertainties in both the contaminant source and hydrogeological structure should be considered, especially the temporal release history and hydraulic transmissivity. Although the release history can be estimated using geostatistical approaches, previous studies use the deterministic hydraulic property field. Geostatistical approaches can also effectively estimate an unknown heterogeneous transmissivity field via the joint data use, such as a combination of hydraulic head and tracer data. However, tracer tests implemented over a contaminated area necessarily disturb the in situ condition of the contamination. Conversely, measurements of the transient concentration data over an area are possible and can preserve the conditions. Accordingly, this study develops a geostatistical method for the joint clarification of contaminant plume and transmissivity distributions using both head and contaminant concentration data. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated through two numerical experiments assuming a two-dimensional heterogenous confined aquifer. The use of contaminant concentration data is key to accurate estimation of the transmissivity. The accuracy of the proposed method using both head and concentration data was verified achieving a high linear correlation coefficient of 0.97 between the true and estimated concentrations for both experiments, which was 0.67 or more than the results using only the head data. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the contaminant plume evolution was successfully evaluated by considering the uncertainties of both the initial plume and the transmissivity distributions, based on their conditional realizations.
Takai, Shizuka; Shimada, Taro; Takeda, Seiji; Koike, Katsuaki*
Journal of Contaminant Hydrology, 251, p.104097_1 - 104097_12, 2022/12
Times Cited Count：3 Percentile：46.08(Environmental Sciences)When assessing the risk from an underground environment that is contaminated by radioactive nuclides and hazardous chemicals and planning for remediation, the contaminant plume distribution and the associated uncertainty from measured data should be estimated accurately. While the release history of the contaminant plume may be unknown, the extent of the plume caused by a known source and the associated uncertainty can be calculated inversely from the concentration data using a geostatistical method that accounts for the temporal correlation of its release history and groundwater flow modeling. However, the preceding geostatistical approaches have three drawbacks: (1) no applications of the three-dimensional plume estimation in real situations, (2) no constraints for the estimation of the plume distribution, which can yield negative concentration and large uncertainties, and (3) few applications to actual cases with multiple contaminants. To address these problems, the non-negativity constraint using Gibbs sampling was incorporated into the geostatistical method with groundwater flow modeling for contaminant plume estimation. This method was then tested on groundwater contamination in the Gloucester landfill in Ontario, Canada. The method was applied to three water soluble organic contaminants: 1,4-dioxane, tetrahydrofuran, and diethyl ether. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by the general agreement of the calculated plume distributions of the three contaminants with concentration data from 66 points in 1982 (linear correlation coefficient of about 0.7). In particular, the reproduced large spill of organic contaminants of 1,4-dioxane in 1978 was more accurate than the result of preceding minimum relative entropy-based studies. The same peak also appeared in the tetrahydrofuran and diethyl ether distributions approximately within the range of the retardation factor derived from the fraction of organic carbon.
Kudo, Akira*; Fujikawa, Yoko*
JNC TJ8400 2000-010, 67 Pages, 2000/02
JNC-TJ8400-2000-010.pdf:2.17MB
The first and second environmental releases of man-made 
Pu came from nuclear explosions at Alamagordo and Nagasaki in 1945. The release at Nagasaki was more serious than at Alamagordo, because it happened in an area with a high population density. Unfissioned Pu and various fission products have been interacting here with various environmental materials (soils, sediments, and plants) under wet and temperature conditions for more than 45 years. To assess the environmental mobility of Pu, the distributions of radionuclides from this release were investigated at Nishiyama where heavy black rain containing unfissioned plutonium and fission products fell 30 minutes after the nuclear explosion. The vertical distributions of 
Cs and Pu were determined in unsaturated soil cores up to 450cm deep. Most radionuclides were found in the soil column 30cm from the ground surface. However, Pu were detected in the groundwater as well below a depth of 200cm. No Cs was found below 40cm from the ground surface or in groundwater. These observations reveal that about 3% of the total Pu have been migrating in the soil at a faster rate than the remaining Pu. Sharp peak of Cs and Pu, indicating heavy deposition from the Nagasaki local fallout of 1945, were found in sediment cores collected from the Nishiyama reservoir. Pu peaks were unexpectedly discovered in pre-1945 sediment core sections. NO Cs was found. By contrast to the distribution in sediment cores, Cs in tree rings had spread by diffusion from the bark to the center of the tree without holding a fallout deposition record. Most of the Pu was distributed in the tree rings following a similar deposition record to that found in sediment cores. Furthermore, a very small amount of Pu (about 1%) was found unexpectedly in pre-1945 tree rings. The only reasonable ...
